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Actuably

Non-Life Credit and Suretyship Recession Scenario

Calculate the Recession Scenario Capital instantly.

€
€
%

Recession Scenario Capital

€3 000 000

Recession Scenario Shock Impact

Shock charge
Retained value
ModuleShockPre-shockPost-shockCharge
Gross Earned Premium Base-100%€3 000 000€0€3 000 000
1Step 1

Gross Earned Premium Base

Gross Earned Premium Base=Credit Gross Earned Premiums+Suretyship Gross Earned Premiums\textit{Gross Earned Premium Base} = \textit{Credit Gross Earned Premiums} + \textit{Suretyship Gross Earned Premiums}
2Step 2

Recession Scenario Capital

Recession Scenario Capital=Gross Earned Premium Base×Recession Loss Factor\textit{Recession Scenario Capital} = \textit{Gross Earned Premium Base} \times \textit{Recession Loss Factor}

Understand the Non-Life Credit and Suretyship Recession Scenario

Overview

This calculator derives the prepared recession scenario capital input used by the Article 134 credit and suretyship risk calculator.[1]

Input Terms

  • Credit Gross Earned Premiums: gross earned premiums for line of business 9 during the following 12 months, before deduction of amounts recoverable from reinsurance contracts and special purpose vehicles.[1]
  • Suretyship Gross Earned Premiums: gross earned premiums for line of business 21 during the following 12 months, before deduction of amounts recoverable from reinsurance contracts and special purpose vehicles.[1]
  • Recession Loss Factor: scenario percentage applied to the combined gross earned premium base.[1]

Technical Rationale

The recession scenario exists because Article 134 credit and suretyship risk includes a macroeconomic premium-driven stress alongside single-exposure default measures.[1] Keeping the recession amount separate preserves the premium-driven catastrophe path without burying the recession evidence in the final aggregation.

Sources

  1. Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 - Art. 134 (Credit and suretyship risk sub-module) - EIOPA

Default values are illustrative sample inputs for navigation, training, and QA. Replace them with controlled data before using the result in capital analysis, governance, or reporting decisions.